Gaza Truce Deal: Will It Hold?

In a crucial attempt to halt the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas and to prevent a broader Middle East war, the United States is spearheading high-stakes negotiations set to take place on Thursday. These talks are not only focused on ending the devastating war but also on securing the release of hostages and averting potential retaliatory actions from regional powers like Iran.

Diplomats from the U.S., Egypt, and Qatar are scheduled to convene in Doha, Qatar, in hopes of brokering a cease-fire deal that has so far proven elusive. The Gaza Strip has been engulfed in relentless violence, leaving thousands dead and causing tensions to skyrocket between Israel and Iran. Despite the urgency, achieving a breakthrough in these negotiations remains a formidable challenge.

Key Players Gather in Doha

Top Israeli officials are expected to participate in the talks in Doha, yet the absence of Hamas representatives casts a shadow over the proceedings. On Wednesday, Hamas confirmed it would not be attending, dealing a significant blow to Washington’s aspirations for a comprehensive agreement that might prevent further escalation, particularly a feared retaliatory strike from Iran.

The urgency of the situation is underscored by the alarming death toll in Gaza, which has surpassed 40,000, according to the region’s health ministry. The assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran and the killing of a prominent Hezbollah commander, both of which are widely believed to be the work of Israel, have further exacerbated tensions. In response, the U.S. has bolstered its military presence in the region, with President Joe Biden hinting that Iran might reconsider any aggressive moves if a cease-fire agreement can be secured.

Negotiations Hit Stalemate

Although President Biden announced a cease-fire framework in May, progress has stalled as mediators have struggled to get both sides to agree on the specifics. While both parties initially agreed in principle to the framework, the finer details have become contentious, leading to a prolonged deadlock.

Hamas has expressed skepticism about the new round of negotiations, accusing Israel of deliberately stalling by introducing new demands. Despite this, Hamas has indicated a willingness to return to the table if Israel makes a “clear commitment” to a cease-fire proposal that Hamas first presented in July.

Deputy State Department spokesperson Vedant Patel stated on Wednesday that Qatar has assured the U.S. of Hamas’s eventual participation in the talks. Mediators are expected to consult with Hamas following the initial discussions, according to a diplomat briefed on the negotiations.

A Three-Phase Cease-Fire Plan

The proposed plan includes a three-phase process where Hamas would release the remaining hostages captured during the October 7 attacks in exchange for the release of Palestinians detained in Israel. This would be followed by an Israeli withdrawal from Gaza.

However, the situation has become more complicated due to new conditions reportedly introduced by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. These include maintaining Israeli control over Gaza’s southern border with Egypt and imposing additional restrictions on Palestinians returning to their homes. These stipulations, first reported by The New York Times, have made the negotiations even more challenging.

Netanyahu’s office has denied these reports, stating that claims of new conditions are “false” and asserting that a recent letter from the Prime Minister “does not introduce extra conditions and certainly does not contradict or undermine the May 27 proposal.” The Israeli government has accused Hamas of requesting 29 changes to the original proposal.

Growing Skepticism and Frustration

Hamas’s confidence in the U.S. as a mediator has been waning, with senior official Osama Hamdan telling The Associated Press that the militant group is losing faith in the American-led efforts to end the 10-month-long conflict.

A senior Biden administration official acknowledged that there is still a significant amount of progress to be made before a cease-fire agreement can be reached. “It’s not like the agreement is going to be ready to be signed on Thursday,” the official told reporters. “There’s still a significant amount of work to do, but we do believe that what’s left here really can be bridged, and there’s really just no time to lose.”

Meanwhile, Hamas spokesman Walid Kilaani suggested in an interview with NBC News in Beirut that Iran and Hezbollah’s potential retaliation “doesn’t have any connection” to the Doha talks. However, he hinted that if Israel were to offer a more favorable deal, Hamas would consider discussing it with Iran and Hezbollah, indicating that these issues might become intertwined.

Mounting Casualties and Criticism

The ongoing conflict has resulted in over 40,000 deaths and more than 90,000 injuries in Gaza, according to local health officials. The vast majority of the population has been displaced as a result of Israel’s prolonged military offensive, which was launched in retaliation for the October 7 Hamas attack that claimed around 1,200 lives and saw another 250 individuals taken hostage.

Domestically, the Biden administration faces increasing criticism for its military support of Israel. Despite this, on Tuesday, the administration approved $20 billion in new arms sales to Israel, a close ally. However, the Pentagon clarified that the delivery of fighter jets and other military equipment would not commence for several years.

As these critical negotiations unfold, the stakes could not be higher. With the possibility of averting further bloodshed and a broader regional conflict hanging in the balance, the world watches anxiously for a breakthrough in Doha.