Ted Cruz Poll Numbers PLUMMET!

Texas hasn’t seen a Democrat win a statewide race since 1994, but this year, the political landscape could be shifting. Colin Allred, a former NFL player turned Congressman, is challenging incumbent Senator Ted Cruz in what could be one of the most competitive Senate races in recent history. The question looming over Texas is: Can a Democrat finally break the nearly 30-year losing streak in one of the country’s reddest states?

Allred is a formidable candidate, one who embodies the characteristics necessary to mount such an unprecedented challenge. He’s a disciplined, poised, and telegenic figure with deep ties to Texas culture. But even with the stars aligned, it will take more than a charismatic candidate to unseat Cruz.

A Debate Performance That Shook the Internet

Allred’s recent debate performance was a pivotal moment in the race, drawing attention both in Texas and across the country. Clips of Allred calling out Cruz for his actions during the January 6th Capitol riot—when Cruz fled to a “supply closet”—went viral. Social media buzzed with videos of Allred slamming Cruz for flying to Cancun while Texans suffered through a deadly winter storm. He also attacked Cruz’s stance on abortion, an issue resonating strongly with female voters who are increasingly turning away from the Republican Party.

Despite the surge in online support following the debate, a strong showing in a debate alone won’t guarantee victory in Texas. Allred’s campaign needs more than viral moments to overcome the long-standing Republican dominance in the state.

A Competitive Polling Race

For the first time in decades, Texas Democrats have a legitimate shot at winning a statewide race. Cruz is currently polling at just 48.4%, according to FiveThirtyEight. A Morning Consult survey from Thursday shows Allred trailing by only one point, while a Senate Leadership Fund memo from Mitch McConnell’s PAC also has Cruz leading by a single point. These slim margins are raising eyebrows. When the National Republican Senatorial Committee released a memo omitting any data on the race, it was seen as a red flag for Cruz.

Polls in Texas have given Democrats hope before, but the difference this time around is palpable. In 2022, Beto O’Rourke was close to Gov. Greg Abbott in some polls, only to see Abbott pull ahead by nine points by Election Day. Similarly, Sen. John Cornyn led comfortably against Democrat MJ Hegar in 2020, eventually winning by 10 points. But the Cruz-Allred race feels different.

Cruz’s Struggles in a New Political Environment

Cruz’s re-election bid in 2018 against Beto O’Rourke was a close one, with Cruz winning by less than three points. But his polling numbers then were far better than they are today. Any incumbent polling below 50% just days before an election risks losing, as evidenced by the 2020 losses of Georgia Republican Senators David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler.

Cruz’s recent media appearances suggest he’s feeling the pressure. On Sean Hannity’s Fox News show, Cruz repeatedly begged for donations, even plugging his campaign website multiple times. He also took aim at his own party, accusing McConnell of failing to financially support his race. This public display of frustration could indicate that Cruz is feeling the heat like never before.

Allred’s Dynamic Campaign and Fundraising Surge

While Cruz struggles, Allred has run an impressive campaign. He has consistently painted himself as the antithesis to Cruz, highlighting his own courage during the January 6th insurrection when he stayed to defend the Capitol. In contrast, Cruz has faced criticism for his actions that day and his perceived retreat during the crisis.

Allred’s personal story, which includes helping free a Texas Marine from Russian captivity, adds to his appeal. In a powerful campaign ad, the Marine’s father publicly endorsed Allred, aiming to drive home the message that Allred will fight for Texans in ways Cruz has failed to.

Financially, Allred has kept pace with Cruz, a feat that many thought impossible in deep-red Texas. As of September 30, Allred had raised $67 million, outpacing the $29 million raised by MJ Hegar in 2020 and approaching Beto O’Rourke’s $79 million haul in 2018. Cruz, however, had raised nearly $75 million by the same date. But Allred’s fundraising has been accelerating as Election Day approaches. In the third quarter alone, Allred raised a staggering $30 million, surpassing Cruz’s $21 million and allowing him to flood the airwaves with ads.

The Fragile Democratic Coalition

Allred’s campaign has capitalized on populist themes, from protecting Medicare and Social Security to securing the border and defending abortion rights. These issues resonate with a broad base of voters, but the challenge for Allred is assembling a winning coalition in Texas—a feat no Democrat has accomplished in decades.

To win, Allred needs to dominate in urban centers, especially among communities of color, while also maintaining support from white, college-educated suburban voters. He must also make inroads with South Texas Hispanic voters, a group that has leaned more Republican in recent years. It’s a tall order, but one that Democrats believe is within reach.

The Race to Watch

While Allred may not be the frontrunner, his campaign has given Texas Democrats hope they haven’t felt in a generation. Cruz’s polling numbers and lackluster campaign have left the door open, but it remains to be seen whether Allred can walk through it.

Regardless of the outcome, Allred has already pushed Texas Democrats closer to a statewide win than anyone since the early ’90s. If nothing else, he’s proven that Texas is no longer the guaranteed Republican stronghold it once was. The 2024 Texas Senate race could be a pivotal moment in the state’s political history.