Ceasefire Talks in Gaza: Hopes Fading Fast!

With the U.S. presidential election looming just days away, there are growing doubts about whether any real progress can be made in the high-stakes negotiations aimed at securing a ceasefire in Gaza and the release of hostages. Top U.S., Israeli, and Qatari diplomats are set to meet in Doha in an attempt to restart the talks. Despite these efforts, optimism for a breakthrough is limited, and the chances of reaching a meaningful agreement before the election appear slim.

The political landscape has complicated these efforts. Former President Donald Trump recently revealed that he has been in direct communication with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, further emphasizing the U.S. election’s influence on the situation. Trump’s statement that “Bibi called me yesterday, called me the day before…We’re going to take care of Israel, and they know that,” highlights Netanyahu’s strategic calculations as he waits to see whether Trump or President Biden will emerge victorious in the U.S. election.

Political Calculations and Ceasefire Stalemate

The resumption of ceasefire discussions follows the death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, an event that some U.S. officials hoped would open a window for negotiations. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who has made numerous trips to the region, held a two-and-a-half-hour meeting with Netanyahu in an effort to reignite talks. However, Netanyahu’s political calculus seems focused on the U.S. election, with some officials suggesting he may prefer to delay major decisions until the outcome is clear.

“There’s no check on Bibi,” one Democrat close to the White House told CNN, referring to Netanyahu’s willingness to press forward with his military campaign in Gaza. “He knows he has two to three weeks to do whatever he wants.”

Trump, now locked in a close race with Vice President Kamala Harris, has not shied away from publicly boosting his relationship with Netanyahu. His recent comments about Netanyahu’s phone calls have been interpreted as a signal that the Israeli leader is hedging his bets on a potential Trump victory. “If Netanyahu didn’t think Trump would win, he wouldn’t call him,” one Trump adviser noted.

Biden’s Diplomatic Tightrope

Meanwhile, President Biden has taken a more cautious approach, trying to balance his administration’s calls for de-escalation in Gaza with his longstanding support for Israel. When asked about whether Netanyahu’s actions were an attempt to influence the U.S. election, Biden responded, “No administration has helped Israel more than I have. None. None. None…And whether he’s trying to influence the election, I don’t know, but I’m not counting on that.”

Some within Biden’s administration believe that Netanyahu may be more willing to end the Gaza conflict if Harris wins the election, as she is viewed as more willing to enforce U.S. threats to withhold support if Israel fails to address humanitarian concerns in Gaza.

Despite these tensions, there is little expectation that a breakthrough will occur before the U.S. election. Israeli officials have signaled that no major decisions regarding Gaza’s future will be made until after the election results are known, according to a source familiar with the discussions.

A Fragile Window for Diplomacy

Though the road ahead seems fraught, there are some within the Biden administration who remain focused on finding a diplomatic path forward. “One of the things we’re doing is looking at whether there are different options that we can pursue to get us to a conclusion, to get us to a result,” Blinken said Thursday. These discussions are set to continue when U.S. negotiators, including CIA Director Bill Burns and Mossad chief David Barnea, meet in Doha.

The death of Sinwar has been seen by some as a potential turning point. “The fact that [Sinwar] is no longer with us perhaps creates an opening for actually moving forward and concluding an agreement,” Blinken said during his visit to Qatar, although it remains unclear whether Hamas is willing to engage in serious negotiations.

While the leadership of Hamas remains in flux, with senior figures like Khalil al-Hayya, Khaled Mashal, and Mousa Abu Marzook stationed in Doha, the Biden administration believes these individuals could play a decisive role in shaping the group’s response. “External and internal, they are capable of making decisions,” a source familiar with the deliberations stated.

Limited Expectations for Progress

Despite the diplomatic efforts underway, there is a general consensus that significant progress in the ceasefire talks is unlikely before the U.S. election. Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani remarked that “the opportunities abound if both parties have the will to end the war,” but the reality on the ground remains highly uncertain.

As the conflict drags on, the Biden administration faces growing pressure to bring the hostages home and to find a way to end a war that is threatening to tarnish Biden’s foreign policy record. However, with both Israel and Hamas entrenched in their positions, and the U.S. election casting a long shadow over the proceedings, the path to peace remains unclear.

The meeting in Doha represents one of the last major diplomatic efforts before the election. Whether it will bear any fruit remains to be seen, but for now, hopes for a breakthrough are dim.